🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours remaining.

England's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

Drawing on analysis from cricket statistics experts, we explore where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on both teams of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the perceived difficulty of scoring runs, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the last five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A common belief from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, pace bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and the reverse is true.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

For once, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of the backup squad have stepped up.

Michael Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

The Kent man, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on Friday, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, most likely returning to number three.

Across seven matches in the current year, Australia's top three average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to play the game.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, spinners have averaged almost 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the struggles of overseas spinners.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of fast bowling?

It is reducing the time Lyon has with ball in hand.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was introduced, meaning Lyon has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an overseas Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited 14 times since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the same, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test hosts an Ashes opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the visitors approach with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been claimed by the team batting first.

England often complicate floodlit Tests, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The issue in {day-night matches|